How much Hay to feed?

"The more, the better!" My enthusiastic, capitalist spirit immediately responds. "I'll make more of it!"

But, seriously, in the small bales business, you meet a lot of new people. A few of those people are green and learning.  How much hay to feed is a very common concern.

The first consideration is the quality of hay.  It stands to reason that the better the Relative Feed Value and the higher the percentage of Total Digestive Nutrients, the lesser the quantity is needed.  Hay quality can vary widely from farmers to farmers, field to field, and cutting to cutting. There are scientific methods for measuring quality, but most people are just looking for general guidelines.  I have over a decade worth of experience feeding cattle, horses, and sheeps.

Horse nutrition is the most complex and intimidating.  There are volumes of books on the subject. Mistakes are expensive. I will only share the most basic observations of horse feeding and recommend further study on the subject.

I have more confidence with sharing tips on feeding cows, sheeps, and goats.  The starting point that I recommend is 5% of bodyweight.  It's easy math and gets you in the ballpark.  Take a 100# ewe for example. 10% is 10#, just move the decimal then split it in half.  So, 5# would be my daily ration to start with.

I recommend feeding twice a day, so you would feed half of the daily ration in the morning and the other half in the evening. The reduction of waste over feeding once a day is significant enough to warrant the extra effort.

When herbivores are fed a large quantity, they pick through it to get their full of the sweetest stuff.  When they come back later to eat again, a lot of the good feed left is soiled and they will not eat it.  In those instances, their fiber intake suffers and you have to feed more to make up for the waste.

I stress 5% as a good start, because of all the other variables.  The weather, the animal health, alternative food stuff, supplements, and hay quality are all factors.  The good news is that you can observe your animals' behaviors as indicators to offer more hay or taper back.

What is the interest at feeding time?  Are they overly enthusiastic?  Are their feeders empty?  Do they stay in one feeding spot or hunt around?  All of those observations can tell you about how much you are feeding. Horses, however, are unique in this aspect.

A horse's favorite pastime is eating.  They will eat all day, every day out of boredom.  Left alone in a sufficient pasture, they will eventually turn it into a nuclear waste land.  1) Don't mistake a horse's enthusiasm as hunger. 2) Don't judge their clean feeder as insufficient. 3) Volume by body weight and body conditioning are probably your best indicators.

Cows, sheeps, and goats won't eat all day long.  They stop when they are satiated and will lay down, chew cud, and meditate. It typically takes about four hours out of the day for them to get their full.  If you are feeding twice a day, you should see them losing interest after a couple of hours each time. If they are taking longer, that should be considered with other indicators that you may not be feeding enough.

How Debt creates a Bubble

There are plenty of big spenders out there that are dependent on creditors to live beyond their means.  Non-discetionary spending leads to enormous amounts of debt.  That behavior and all the hot air used to justify it creates abnormal financial bubbles.  Bubbles burst, eventually.  What have we learned from our past?

Remember the big real estate bubble only ten years ago?  When the big spenders were flying high there was a lot of hot air justifying the irresponsible spending and touting a "new" normal.  For a lot of political reasons, money was being lent at greater amounts and to more people than ever before.  The political correctness called them  "sub-prime" loans.  The lenders found out that they could make money off of loans that they didn't expect paid back.  They could profitably lend money to folks without the will or the ability to pay it back, so long as it didn't get out of control.

The typical bubble formation starts innocent enough.  A responsible buyer finds an interesting property and performs diligence in preparing a reasonable offer.  They weigh all the negatives against the positives and come up with a number.  But even before they can submit their offer, another buyer quickly appears without concern for the value.  With a pocket full of loaned money, they don't hesitate to make a full price offer.

The neighbors across the street take notice of how fast and how much the property sold for.  They decide to list their property with comparable amenities for ten percent higher.  It sells immediately.  The escalation continues and the bubble is formed.  Extra money in loose hands perverts the natural worth of everything.

Eventually, the loose money runs out.  The early careless buyers use all of their available credit and get to the point where they need to sell their house to continue their lavish lifestyle or avoid bankruptcy.  They are shocked and dismayed when they realize that nobody wants to buy it for what they paid for it.  Nevertheless, it becomes increasingly important to sell, so they drop the price.  When their neighbors get in the same boat, they lower their price too.  Almost as quickly as the bubble was formed, it begins to break.

Before everybody realizes what is happening, their property values have dropped significantly.  They don't want to continue paying on a property worth so much less than what they are paying!  Daunted, they just stop making payments and the foreclosure process begins.  The foreclosure system is designed so that the lenders still come out ahead, but only for a normal amount of defaults.  When the rate of defaults exceeds the designed system, the lenders find themselves in financial trouble! 

The business investors are among the first to see the significance.  They don't want their money invested in firms that will not be able to earn a profit in the fore-seeable future.  The mass hysteria from the total collapse of one sector, bleeds off into another sector.  The whole "house of cards" comes crashing down.

That was all ten years ago; so what?  History doesn't repeat itself, exactly.  We have a lot of smart people whom instituted changes and laws so that can't happen again.  Perhaps the most significant of those are contained in the Dodd-Frank bill?  Aren't they currently in the process of dismantling that bill?

What is a bubble anyway?  How can we recognize it?  A bubble occurs whenever loose money and the hot-air accompanying it increase the value of property.

So what are some property values at today?  In many of our prospering cities, the median property value is at 16 times the average local wage.  If the average wage earner had the ability to pay half of their income on a mortgage, it would take about 32 years to pay it off.  The average wage earner can not do that due to interest, taxes, cost of living and OTHER debts!  The top three OTHER debts are classified as student loans, consumer debt and automobile debt.

Student loan debt can not be defaulted under current law.  However, legislation can be created by swaying public opinion and that has been in motion for over a decade.  I expect we will see some form of "foregiveness" at tax payers' expense in the next four years.

Consumer debt and credit card spending is volatile.  It is currently very high and that is never a good thing.  Often times, the higher levels of credit are anchored by home ownership.  That indirect relationship creates a covert property value bubble.

Automobile debt has grown to second place in the typical American household.  Not only is it high, but it has exceeded record levels.  This is alarming in itself, but the hot air from the "experts" are quelling concern because "things are different".

Loose money for auto loans has created an obvious bubble in vehicle valuations.  Consumers are borrowing more than ever for the vehicle they commute in to their underpaid jobs from their overpriced homes! 

Things are different.  How are these things related to the crash of ten years ago?  The warning signs are more covert.  The loose money is from other sources than the government subsidized sub-prime mortgages, yet the real estate bubble is still forming.  The loose money is perverting valuation and that is very similar to the circumstances that led to the last financial collapse.

Thinking like an Immigrant

What makes America so appealing that would encourage an individual to pull up roots, leave their home country, friends, and most of their family?  They are putting so much at risk: their livelihood, their relationships, and ultimately their lives.

Free Enterprise.

For most of the immigrants that I know the best personally, the chances offered by free enterprise are the highest motivation.  Most of us home grown Americans take free enterprise for granted.  There's a whole lot of other places in the world that inhibit opportunity with laws, culture, and corruption.

Just being born in the USA is like winning the lottery of life.  You are born into millions of opportunities for a better life.  Many immigrants arrive looking for employment, but are destined for self employment.  Free enterprise offers the best chance of success towards that goal.

Why do so many immigrants realize so much success in the USA?  Despite so many barriers - not the least of which being the language, they are able to surpass many homegrown Americans toward economic prosperity.  My observation is cliche', but it is because they work harder and smarter.

Work ethic is a requisite.  Nothing moves without being pushed or pulled.  I don't know of a single successful immigrant that is not a hard worker. 

Duty is held in high regards.  Duty of 365 days a year.  Duty doesn't take a holiday off, it doesn't call in sick, it doesn't offer excuses.  It is a complete dedicated effort.  No sandbagging allowed!

So many homegrown Americans are lacking that motivation.  Many are complacent underachievers.  Some are self defeating pessimists and others are malcontents.  A few spoiled children that never grow up and a few are overly ego-tistical.

A had a friend who was a talented bike racer.  He would train very hard for a race only to go out the night before and get drunk?  Some people have such big egos that they sabotage their own efforts so they have a ready excuse for failure.  They never have to look close and serious at themselves because of the obvious reason for failure that they provide.

There is no sandbagging among successful immigrants.  They don't play that way.  They were held back in their homelands.  Remove the reasons of failure that were beyond their control and LOOK OUT!

Although, hard work is essential, we all know that it is not the only ingredient.  You can work very hard on a treadmill without getting anywhere.  Successful immigrants don't confuse action with progress.  They are adept at working smarter.

They see hidden opportunities, they establish a goal, and then they go after it.  They are inherintly risk takers and don't fear failure.  But they do not expect immediate gratification.  They are measured optimistic and certainly not self defeating.

Many of them suffered defeat in their homeland.  Usually the fault was none of their own.  They were working hard and smart, but somebody changed the rules!  That kind of thing can happen in America too, but it is far less common.

Americans hate corruption.  We also hate anything less than fair play.  But we LOVE a figher and a winner!  Just ask General Patton.  A fighter, a winner, a smart, hard worker thrives in the free enterprise of the USA.

Shopping Locally - for Sagacity

Financial success is aplenty if you look for it.  From an early age, I have been cognizant of learning from seemingly unlikely sources.  Business philoshophies and strategies have always peaked my interest.  So with my parabolic reciever aimed in that direction,  I have gotten a lot of repeat strong signals leading me to believe there is some truth to the matters.

"First, we find a way to make money, and then we just do that over and over again."  It is a local rancher's recipe for good business.  Seemingly simple, the first part can prove a lot more difficult than it sounds.  Especially in agriculture when it can be like hitting a moving target.

You can be profitable one year, do the same thing and lose money in consecutive years.  The lesson in that realization is to expand the definition by finding something that works more often than not. 

The second part of that strategy is just as challenging.  Controlling all of the variables to ensure a repeat performance can be very difficult if not impossible.  I think the key is in stocking away a surplus to help you make it through times when forces out of your control are against you. 

It might be stated in other more modern words: "Follow the money."  If you have found a profitable business, say in selling beef, don't modify your whole operation to start selling hay.  It sounds like simple common sense, but this mistake is made in all levels.

Remeber when Coke changed their original recipe?  They had an established winner, but thought they could do better with "New Coke".  The resulting fiasco caused a significant loss in market share and a prompt retreat back to what was working.

"First we ask how can we make it better.  Second, is how can we make it cheaper."  This was the simple guiding principle of a NW food manufacturing equipment manufacturer.  I fell in love with it's simplicity, but it is very difficult in application.  Especially in the high tech business they compete in.  Nevertheless, it focusses on two important business goals: quality and cost.

The competitive nature of business requires improvement.  How can you do it or make it better?  Creative thinking and engineering really pays off here.  But do not forget about the second part!

Anything in the world can be improved if money was no object.  In business, money is the objective - so making it better economically is what's important.  Making it better for less than the competition is a fundamental advantage.

"Now you boys always remember this:  It's not how hard you tamp a post, it's how many times."  That old cowboy at my very first paying job was referring to more than building fence.  Henry Ford implementing mass production as we know it comes to mind.  Quality gets so much press, but quantity is just as economically important. 

Many higher profits can be attributed to mass production.  High yields and big numbers can cover up a lot of little problems.  The bigger your production numbers the lower the cost per unit. Don't try to do things in one big effort.  It's the sustained effort that is going to add up.

"The more junk you've got, the more headaches you've got!"  I heard this repeated from the same local rancher many times.  It illustrates the importance of simplicity of design.  The fewer moving parts in your operation, the more robust it becomes. 

Accountants value this as return on assets (ROA).  The more efficient you are with utilization, the easier it is to be profitable.  It's not what you've got that counts as much as what you do with what you've got.  Make the most of what you have before you go out to upgrade your "assets".

"Grease is still cheaper than metal, last time I checked."  I saved this bit of wisdom spoken by another local rancher as my favorite for last.  My whole professional career was based on this premise.

The more sophisticated and better that I became at preventing problems, the greater my worth was realized.  "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."  is another way of saying it.  It's about working pro-actively to attend to small details before they multiply or grow into major events.

Grease is cheaper than metal and so is paint.  Wax is cheaper than paint.  Armor-all is cheaper than vinyl and molded plastic.  Do you feel like you are vainly wasting your time  by waxing paint or armor-alling seats and dashboards?

Why not change a hydraulic hose before it blows?  Waiting for failure is going to still cost the hose plus the oil spewed at $12/ gallon and worse it could cost you a new hydraulic pump if it runs dry long enough!

To summarize all these tidbits: Attend to details so you can fully utilize a few assets to mass produce a better product or service at a competitive price that you can usually make money at.  That's all you need to know to make a living in the intermountain northwest!

Mined Over Matter

There are numerous studies about the reduction of food value in our modern fruits and vegetables.  It seems that the carrot you eat today is not as packed full of our bodys' essentials as it was years ago.

Modern ag practices have shouldered much of the blame.  The trend has been bigger and bigger and quanity over quality.  Yield is the primary concern and minute compromises of quality are ignored.  If the customer can not see the difference then it is not a significant difference?

Ever increasing yields by means of genetic manipulation, high rates of synthetic fertilizers, and high rates of herbicides and pesticides are all commonplace.  But the often overlooked result of those practices can be the root cause of substance depletion in our food supply - the resulting depletion of soil organic matter (SOM).

SOM has been mined out of our soils for decades.  That practice has necessitated replacing those nutrients with high levels of fertilizer to maintain economical yields.  The trend for big ag and everything getting larger and more expensive creates the demand for evolving crops with higher yields.

Yield is king!  To make margins profitable in the modern ag economy, you must continually improve yield.  There is zero tolerance for imperfections that would compromise yields.  High rates of herbicides and pesticides to the rescue!

All of those practices destroy the biology at work in the soil.  Improving the soil has not been a concern of big ag.  Could that be the reason for the decline in nutrition of our food supply?

I have been taking steps and making decisions to improve the soil on my farm for five years now.  I started out with an average SOM of less than one percent.  This is typical for my area of farm ground that is continuously tilled.  Ironically, our farms was certified organic for six years and that contributed to the destruction of organic matter.  Organic farmers have few options for controlling pesky weeds, so they often resort to additional tillage.

Pulling iron through your top soil kills the micro organisms at work trying to reproduce and increase your SOM.  It's analogous to raking scars on your skin.  The health of your skin and body would seriously be compromised from that continual practice.

For five years I have been instituting conservation ideas and the SOM appears to be responding to those efforts.  This laboratory data that I am basing this assumption on was the source of some controversy last year.

My field man has a lot of years of experience in this valley.  He has not witnessed such improvements in SOM and immediately concluded that the laboratory erred.  I suspect that I am his first "no-till" client.  I base this assumption on looking at farmers' fields whenever I have to drive somewhere (without running off the road!).  This areas farmers are prominently traditionalist, so it wasn't a surprise when he told me that he has not seen much change from one percent in SOM.  "The ground here is not capable of that much improvement."

He went on to educate me of the massive amounts of dump truck loads of importing material that it would mathematically require just to raise a single acre by a single percentage point.  I didn't offer any argument to the contrary because you cannot be too sure about these things initially.  Time will ultimately tell the truth, but a related university study came to mind that illustrates the great mass that life can accumulate out of "nothing-ness".

This particular agricultural university study was to identify the source of the mass required to grow a massive tree.  Measures were regularly recorded of the contained soil, the water added, and the mass of any added fertilizer.  They concluded that the mass supplied to grow the massive tree came out of the air!  The masses recorded from the soil, water, and fertilizer were negligible.

This leads me to believe that the magic in nature can create tons or living matter from the air that we breathe.  Providing of course that we do our part to keep conditions favorable for life.  So that has been my fundamental guiding principle: provide favorable conditions to support life in the soil.

Food, shelter, and clothing?  Life in the soil is not all that different.  It needs food, water, and sunlight.  What it doesn't need is harmful disturbances: tilling, poisons, or pH imbalances.  It's taken a lot of patience and tolerance for less than perfection to improve conditions for the soil life.  The explosion of earth worm populations are a good indicator.

My most recent laboratory tests, along with other observations, lead me to believe that I am on the right track.  My SOM has improved from less than one percent to average about three percent.  Another macro-indicator, the Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) has also improved from single digits to average in the middle teens.  These improved numbers along with field observations of the soil composition and our increasing yields with lower additional fertilizer inputs all point to improving conditions for the matter that really matters on our farm.

A Tough Act to Follow

In every workplace, in every work group, there occasionally exists a prototypical employee.  They are born leaders by example.  Their efforts and history earn respect from all of their peers.  They become tough acts to follow.

Rich Cilantro was my first tought act to follow.  He had a great rapport with all the workers all the way up through management.  He was able to fix problems quickly and efficiently.  He made equipment operators' jobs easy and performed his task with a flair that left everybody in a great mood.

Suffice it to say, when I was the new guy on that job, my immediate expectations were unachievable.  There was one person in particular who was especially critical of my early failures.  She expected me to walk on water the same way that Rich did, and would accept nothing less.  Even as my experience grew and I gained respect from her peers, she was still holding out.

The catalyst that won her over was extreme.  She saw something noble in my efforts to help a co-worker who nearly lost her life getting tangled up in a machine.  From that moment forward, she became one of my strongest supporters.  We became friends, allies, and teammates.  I pity the fool who tried to fill my shoes after that!

My next workplace had a hero named Larry.  On top of all the qualities that Rich had, Larry had a very long tenure - 19 years!  He had gained mastery of his position and kept everything running as smooth as a Swiss watch.  Luckily, I was not to immediately follow his act, that was Tony.  Tony turned out to be the polar opposite of Larry.

Tony could not endeavor to meet the expectations that Larry established and nor would he even try.  His purpose was purely self-serving.  He didn't make any effort that would not benefit himself in short order. 

All the other workers were quick to catch on and would not do much to further his selfish goals.  The machines that he was responsible for performed very poorly, the operators didn't care, and for a long two years it was a dreadful work environment.  He'd finally made things bad enough that the union would stop covering him and worked with management to expel him.  I was hired shortly after that.

What a mess that I inherited!  The machines and operators were all down trodden and looking for hope.  A few of the managers who were only told highlights of my resume had hoped that I was Larry "re-incarnate"!   One of them introduced me to a group as the "next" Larry.

Being the new guy, looking for direction, and trying to make quick friends - I accepted the idea.  I vowed to do things the way Larry did.  Little did I know all that entailed!

It was like a campaign promise.  I was sold to the spirit of Larry's contribution, but not the letter of the law!  Whenever I started to do something a little different than Larry, I was quickly set straight.  In almost every circumstance, I would humbly listen and learn Larry's way.  Until one day it became preposterous.

"Paper towels are used around here to clean lenses -lenses for cameras.  Cameras are electrical, so that is an electrical expense."

"Okay?"  I responded to the manager's directive.

"I want you to go to supply, charge paper towels to the electrical department, and I want you to keep those dispensers full."

"I don't think paper towels can be classified as electrical?"

"That is the way Larry did it.  Didn't you agree to do things the way Larry did?"

"Yes.  But this seems to be ridiculous.  Or at least it seems that way to me, but I can check with my boss?"

"I am your boss and I am telling you to maintain those paper towels!"

"No.  I won't do it.  Not without checking with my boss."

"What?  Did you say 'No'?  That is insubordination!"

"Maybe so?  I will go and discuss this with my boss right now."

My boss was more than a little perturbed to discover that his department was financing paper towels.

"and furthermore, what is your pay grade?"

I wasn't familiar with the union's stratification of laborers, but I knew where he was going.

"You are a twelve.  We don't pay grade twelve to change paper towels!"

My campaign among the managers and operators took a step sideways.  They were not sure if I was more like Larry or (heaven forbid) just another Tony.  Un-deterred, I proceeded to to my best and follow the ways of Larry, for the most part.

A few months later, I would get the opportunity to meet Larry.  He had kept in touch with friends at the plant and agreed to spend a day with me to help me with some idiosyncrasies.  He was greeted with many smiles and hand shakes.  I knew that I was in special presence.  I absorbed everthing he shared with me like a sponge.

I was not there long enough to ever achieve Larry status.  Nevertheless, I made quite a significant impact during my short time there.  A new opportunity more aligned with my long term goals had come up and the next "Tough Act to Follow" was waiting there for me.

Terry was a living legend.  The more that I got to know him, the more I learned to admire him.  He was not only the prototypical technical employee, he was a great role model.  In the short five years that I worked with him, I learned so much.  Not just the tangible technical items of which he was an authority,  but many intangibles like work ethic, honor, and character.

Unfortunately, there were managers at that place that were disheveled by the respect bestowed upon Terry.  Amongst working men, there are two modes of respect: respect from title and the greater respect that is earned and proven.  Those managers wanted greater respect for their titles.  When Terry would inform them of follies in their directives, they percieved it as a threat to their status.

Depsite that caustic environment, Terry always kept his chin up and his nose to the grindstone.  He personified the indomitable spirit.  Everything he did was to the best of his ability.  His ability was substantial!  And above all of that, no matter what the situation, he was always kind.  He left a very tough act to follow!

Lucky for me, I ended up leaving before he did!

Planning and Scheduling

One good thing about a long career is exposure to a few world class mentors.  One such person, was a long term professional consultant.  He made a good living selling world class benchmarks.  His expertise was equipment maintenance and his silver bullet was planning and scheduling.

Any business that employs equipment suffers breakdowns and the associated high costs.  If you can not produce, you can't make money.  Lower quality and lower returns on investment are typical from surprising events.

There is significant cost savings to be had from fixing problems pro-actively.  If you grease a bearing, it doesn't sieze, the shaft doesn't get undercut, the sprocket doesn't jam and cause the chain to buckle and the motor doesn't burn up.  It's a lot like the fable of the horshoe nail.  The kingdom is lost for want of a horse shoe nail.

Without being clairvoyant or having a crystal ball, how can you predict such failures?  There are a lot of easy things to begin with.  Most manufacturers give recommended maintenance periodicals based on data.  All that typically requires is tracking the number of hours of useage.

Going beyond the basic scheduled maintenance requires a bit more effort.  There are very many modern and sometimes expensive techniques for predictive maintenance.  Infra-red cameras, vibration monitors, lubricant analysis, mega-ohmeters, ultra-sonic detection, and analytical computer programs just to name a few.  Maybe everybody can not cost justify such equipment, but you can examine the purpose of these tools to reveal some basic indicators.

Heat, vibration, and sound coupled with a general familiarity with a machine can go a long way.  Frequent inspections with your eyes, ears, nose, and touch are often times sufficient.  The goal is to identify and quantify a problem so it can be managed before it becomes more significant.  The more you can manage pro-actively, the greater your cost advantage is going to be.

I had the good fortune of spending an entire week in training with an expert.  "Planning and Scheduling" was the topic of the classes.  The purpose of this lofty venture was to gain a competitive advantage by continually improving at fixing problems efficiently and timely.  This would result is lower cost of production and increased profits over competitors that simply run to failure.

One very important theme was measuring.  You can not objectively manage what isn't measured.  To measure our progression, we kept records on how well the actual results matched our plans.  The main metric ended up being scheduled time.  We planned and scheduled events breaking them down into ever smaller actions and each action had an allotted time to perform.  After a scheduled maintenance event, we'd compare actual numbers to the plan.

We had regular Planner/Scheduler meetings to share and discuss our results and upcoming events.  In the beginning, I was head of the class with actual time predictions in the 90 percentile.  The remaining half dozen planners all came in around 70-80%.

At first, the others belittled my achievements:

"Yeah, he's got great numbers but he has the smallest crew."

"He's cheating by doing a lot of his own scheduled work!"

Some of my extra efforts started to catch on.  I tried to implement every concievable idea that would prevent a task from taking longer.  I personally checked inventory of parts. I used penetrating oil on parts that were to be taken apart later.  I would secure specialty tools in advance to guarantee availability. I had face to face discussions with individuals of my crew fishing for ideas to streamline our work.

The more effort that went into stomping out and refining details, the smoother everything went.  Workers were happier knowing more of what to expect. The jobs didn't go into overtime. Costs were lowered and production schedules were more reliable.